WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

The Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide.

New! Read the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2021–2025: PDF

WMO Press Release

Met Office Press Release

PDF of WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

Please use the drop-down menus below to explore the predictions, verifications and timeseries of annual to decadal predictions. If you would like to access the forecast data, send your request to wmolc-adcp@metoffice.gov.uk. The data shown below are from the Global Producing Centres (listed below) and other Contributing Centres (also listed below).

Monthly and seasonal predictions from the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME),
The Grand Challenge on Near-Term Climate Prediction,
Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP),
The WMO manual on the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System,
The Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-Seasonal to Long Time-Scales (IPET-OPSLS) and the Terms of Reference,
Scientific documentation of real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions,
The WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update features in the WMO United in Science report.
System Configuration Information

The prediction from each institute, when available, is shown below as an anomaly from 1981-2010 (1971-2000 for forecasts before 2019) alongside the average of all the models. Verifying observations for the period of the forecast are also shown.

Year Issued:

Forecast period:

Element:

Skill scores are shown for participating models and for the multi-model ensemble mean. The Pearson correlation (r) measures the deterministic skill, the maps show stippling where this is not significant at p=0.05, and the Relative Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC AUC) score measures the performance for a two-category probabilistic prediction.

Verification type:

Forecast lead time:

Element:

Timeseries for Global Mean Near Surface Temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV, dipole index) are shown for participating models and for the multi-model ensemble mean, along with along with the Pearson correlation (r). The axes show anomalies relative to both 1981-2010, and preindustrial 1850-1900. The central year used to calculate the 5 year means is displayed on the axes.

Forecast type:

Forecast lead time:

Element:

Global Producing Centres

Contributing Centres

The WMO Lead Centre and Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update were developed in collaboration with the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction and supported by the H2020 EUCP project grant number GA 776613

WMO Lead Centre forAnnual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

The Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide.

Global Producing Centres

Contributing Centres

WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction