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WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

The Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide.

Map of decadal prediction institutes

New! Read the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2022–2026: PDF

WMO Press Release

Met Office Press Release

Past reports: 2020-2024 | 2021-2025

PDF of WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

Please use the drop-down menus below to explore the predictions, verifications and timeseries of annual to decadal predictions. For access to the forecast data, send your request to wmolc-adcp@metoffice.gov.uk. The data shown below are from the Global Producing Centres and other Contributing Centres (both listed below). See the System Configuration Information for further information about the models used.

The multi-model mean forecast and each contributing centre is shown as an anomaly from the 1991-2020 climatology (forecasts before 2021 have other climatologies as indicated below the colour bar). Forecasts are available for annual, May to September (MJJAS), and November to March (NDJFM for the year of November) averages for the next year or the mean of years 1-5. Verifying observations for older forecasts are shown when available. Note that predictions are intialized at the end of the year issued and interannual forecasts for seasons are not available before 2021.

Year Issued:
Forecast period:
Element:

Skill scores are shown for participating models and the multi-model ensemble mean as annual, May to September (MJJAS), and November to March (NDJFM for the year of November) averages for the next year or the mean of years 1-5. The Pearson correlation (r) measures the deterministic skill, the maps show stippling where this is not significant at p=0.05, and the Relative Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC AUC) score measures the performance for a two-category probabilistic prediction.

Verification type:
Forecast lead time:
Element:

Timeseries for Global Mean Near Surface Temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV, dipole index), and Relative Niño 3.4 (Niño 3.4 temperature relative to the average temperature in the tropics, for December to February, DJF). Observations (black), participating models (blue) and for the multi-model ensemble mean (red), are shown along with the Pearson correlation (r). Anomalies are displayed relative to both 1981-2010, and preindustrial 1850-1900. The central year used to calculate the 5 year means is shown on the axes.

Forecast type:
Forecast lead time:
Element:

User Guidance

The forecasts shown here are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). It does not constitute an official forecast for any region or nation. The forecast only shows the most likely outcome, other outcomes are possible and may be almost as likely. Signals with small spatial extent are likely unreliable. The skill of interannual to decadal forecasts is different than that of weather timescales and skill may vary considerably with region and season. It is important to view the forecast maps together with the skill maps provided in the Verification tab.



Related pages:

Global Producing Centres

Logos of Global Producing Centres

Contributing Centres

Logos of Contributing Centres


The WMO Lead Centre and Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update were developed in collaboration with the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction and supported by the H2020 EUCP project grant number GA 776613
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