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WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

The Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide.

Map of decadal prediction institutes

Read the WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2020–2024 (NB. This is currently based on forecasts initialised in 2019 and will be updated soon): PDF

WMO Press Release

PDF of WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

The data shown below are from the Global Producing Centers (listed below) and other Contributing Centers (listed below). The prediction from each institute is shown below as an anomaly from 1981-2010 (1971-2000 for forecasts before 2019) alongside the average of all the models. Verifying observations for the period of the forecast are also shown. Selecting the “Verification” tab will show skill scores for participating models and for the multi-model ensemble mean. The Pearson correlation (r) measures the deterministic skill, the maps show stippling where this is not significant at p=0.05, and the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) score measures the performance for a two-category probabilistic prediction.

Please use the drop-down menus below to explore the predictions and verifications. If you would like to access the forecast data, send your request to wmolc-adcp@metoffice.gov.uk.

Related pages:

Year Issued:
Forecast period:

Verification type:
Forecast lead time:

Global Producing Centres

Logos of Global Producing Centres

Contributing Centres

Logos of Contributing Centres