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WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

The Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide.
Map of decadal prediction institutes

New! WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update for 2025–2029: PDF

Past reports: 2020-2024 | 2021-2025 | 2022-2026 | 2023-2027 | 2024-2028

PDF of WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update

For access to the forecast data, send your request to wmolc-adcp@metoffice.gov.uk.

Forecast anomalies are relative to the 1991-2020 climatology. Forecasts prior to 2021 have a different climatology indicated below the colour bar. Predictions are initialized at the end of the year prior to issuing. Ensemble mean stippling shows where less than 2/3 of model ensemble means agree on sign of anomaly, and observation stippling shows where observations are outside the model 5-95% range.

Year Issued:
 Forecast period:
 Element:

The Pearson correlation (r) measures the deterministic skill, the maps show stippling where this is not significant at p=0.05, and the Relative Operating Characteristic Area Under Curve (ROC) score measures the performance for a two-category probabilistic prediction of above or below average. The standard verification period is 1960-2018, shorter periods are denoted by *.

Verification type:
 Lead time:
 Element:

Anomalies are relative to the 1991-2020 average for Global Mean Near Surface Temperature, Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), “Relative Niño 3.4”, which is the Niño 3.4 temperature relative to the average temperature in the tropics, and Sea Ice Extent, which is the total area with at least 15% sea ice cover. For the five-year average the central year is shown. Pearson correlation (r) for the hindcast period 1960-2018 is shown in each plot title, shorter periods are denoted by *.

Year Issued:
 Lead Time:
 Index:

Predictions (Maps and Timeseries) for WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Regions (red areas on maps, see Climate Services Information System). Anomalies are relative to 1991-2020. For timeseries the five-year average the central year is shown. Pearson correlation (r) for the hindcast period 1960-2018 is shown in each timeseries plot title, shorter periods are denoted by *.

Year Issued:
 Lead time:
 Variable:
 Region:
 Season:

User Guidance

The data shown above are from the Global Producing Centres and other Contributing Centres (both listed below, see System Configuration Information). The forecasts shown here are intended as guidance for Regional Climate Centres (RCCs), Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). It does not constitute an official forecast for any region or nation. The forecast only shows the most likely outcome, other outcomes are possible and may be almost as likely. Signals with small spatial extent are likely unreliable. The skill of interannual to decadal forecasts is different to that of weather timescales and skill may vary considerably with region and season. It is important to view the forecast maps together with the skill maps provided in the Verification tab.



Related pages:

Global Producing Centres

Logos of Global Producing Centres

Contributing Centres

Logos of Contributing Centres


The WMO Lead Centre and Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update were developed in collaboration with the WCRP Grand Challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction and supported by the H2020 EUCP project grant number GA 776613 		WCRP logo EUCP logo