WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction

The Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction collects and provides hindcasts, forecasts and verification data from a number of contributing centres worldwide.

WMO Press Release

Met Office Press Release

The data shown below are from the Global Producing Centers (listed below) and other Contributing Centers (listed below). The prediction from each institute is shown below as an anomaly from 1981-2010 (1971-2000 for forecasts before 2019) alongside the average of all the models. Verifying observations for the period of the forecast are also shown. Selecting the “Verification” tab will show skill scores for participating models and for the multi-model ensemble mean. The Pearson correlation (r) measures the deterministic skill, the maps show stippling where this is not significant at p=0.05, and the Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) score measures the performance for a two-category probabilistic prediction.

Please use the drop-down menus below to explore the predictions and verifications. If you would like to access the forecast data, send your request to wmolc-adcp@metoffice.gov.uk.

Related pages:

• Monthly and seasonal predictions from the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME),
• The Grand Challenge on Near-Term Climate Prediction,
• Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP),
• The WMO manual on the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System,
• The Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-Seasonal to Long Time-Scales (IPET-OPSLS) and the Terms of Reference,
• Scientific documentation of real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions,
• The WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate
• System Configuration Information