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BSC
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CCCMA
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CSIRO
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DWD
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MOHC
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When was the current decadal prediction system implemented?
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January 2022
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2012
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January 2020
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2020
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Oct 2021
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Is it a coupled forecast system?
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Yes
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Atmospheric model and resolution
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IFS: T255 (~90 km), 91 levels
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CanCM4: T63 (~300km), 35 levels
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AM2: 2ᵒ latitude x 2.5ᵒ longitude, 24 levels
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ECHAM6: T127(~200km), 47 levels
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HadGEM3-GC3.1-MM: N216 (~60km), 85 levels
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Ocean model and resolution
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NEMO: ORCA 1ᵒ grid, 75 levels
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1.4° longitude ´ 0.94° latitude, 40 levels
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MOM5: ACCESS grid (1ᵒ resolution, enhanced resolution in the tropics and Southern Ocean, 50 levels)
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MPIOM: ~1.5ᵒ average, 40 levels
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NEMO: ORCA 0.25ᵒ grid, 75 levels
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Sea-ice model
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LIM3
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Cavitating fluid rheology and an energy balance model
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Sea Ice Simulator (SIS)
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Within MPIOM
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CICE
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Source of atmospheric initial conditions
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ERA5
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6 hourly atmospheric wind, temperature and specific humidity
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Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations
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Full-field nudged atmosphere with Ensemble Kalman filtering using ERA40/ERA5
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6 hourly atmospheric winds and temperature from ERA40/ERA-Interim/ERA5
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Source of ocean and ice initial conditions
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Assimilated ocean state from an ocean-only run with ERA5 surface forcings, ORA-S5 temperature and salinity at the surface and EN4 below the surface.
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Interpolated monthly/daily sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration. Sea ice thickness nudged to values from a statistical model. Offline variational assimilation of 3D ocean temperature
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Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations
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Assimiliated ocean state with Ensemble Kalman Filtering using ocean temperature and salinity from EN4 observations and daily sea-ice concentration from NSIDC
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Monthly potential temperature and salinity from the MOSORA ensemble and monthly sea-ice concentration from HadISST
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Forecast Start Month
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November
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January
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November
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November
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November
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Hindcast period
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1960-2019
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1960-2010
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1960-2018
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1960-2020
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1960-2018
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Ensemble size for the hindcasts
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10
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10
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10
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10
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10
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How is the hindcast ensemble configured?
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Different ocean initial conditions from multiple ocean assimilation runs.
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Separate coupled assimilation for each ensemble member.
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Initial conditions are picked from members of a climate re-analysis.
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Lagged-day initialization
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Stochastic physics perturbations in the atmosphere and multiple ocean analyses.
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Ensemble size for the forecast
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10
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10
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10
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16
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10
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How is the forecast ensemble configured?
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Same as hindcasts
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Same as hindcasts
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Same as hindcasts
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Same as hindcasts
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Same as hindcasts
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Length of forecasts
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10 years
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10 years
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10 years
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10 years
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10 years
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How are the forecast anomalies constructed?
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Lead-time dependent climatology
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Lead-time dependent climatology with trend correction for near-surface temperatures
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Lead-time dependent climatology
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Lead-time dependent climatology
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Lead-time dependent climatology
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URL where forecast(maps) are displayed
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https://decadal.bsc.es/
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Not available
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Not available
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https://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast/forecasts-archive/
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Not available
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Point of Contact
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markus.donat@bsc.es pablo.ortega@bsc.es
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reinel.sospedra-alfonso@canada.ca
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richard.matear@csiro.au
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klaus.pankatz@dwd.de
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leon.hermanson@metoffice.gov.uk
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