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WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction



System Configuration Information for Global Producing Centers

 

CCCMA

BSC

MOHC

DWD

When was the current decadal prediction system implemented?

2012

June 2011

Oct 2015

2020

­Is it a coupled forecast system?

Yes

 

Yes

Yes

Yes

Atmospheric model and resolution

CanCM4: T63 (~300km), 35 levels

IFS: T159 (~125 km), 62 levels

HadGEM3-GC2: N216 (~60km), 85 levels

ECHAM6: T127(~200km), 47 levels

Ocean model and resolution (if applicable)

1.4° longitude ´ 0.94° latitude, 40 levels

NEMO: ORCA 1ᵒ grid, 42 levels

 

NEMO: ORCA 0.25ᵒ grid, 75 levels

MPIOM: 1.5ᵒ average, 40 levels

 

Sea-ice model (if applicable)

Cavitating fluid rheology and an energy balance model

LIM2

CICE

Within MPIOM

Source of atmospheric initial conditions

6 hourly atmospheric wind, temperature and specific humidity

ECMWF (FULLPOS software)

6 hourly atmospheric winds and temperature from ERA40/ERA-Interim

Full-field nudged atmosphere with Ensemble Kalman filtering using ERA40/ERA5

Source of ocean and ice initial conditions

Interpolated monthly/daily sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration. Sea ice thickness nudged to values from a statistical model. Offline variational assimilation of 3D ocean temperature

Interpolation of ORAS4 data

Monthly potential temperature and salinity from MOSORA and monthly sea-ice concentration from HadISST

Assimiliated ocean state using Ensemble Kalman Filtering with ocean temperature and salinity from EN4 observations and daily sea-ice concentration from NSIDC

Forecast Start Month

January

November

November

November

Hindcast period

1960 – 2010

1960-2017

1960-2015

1960 - 2020

Ensemble size for the hindcasts

10

10

10

16

How is the hindcast ensemble configured?

Separate coupled assimilation for each ensemble member.

Perturbations of atmosphere and ocean initial conditions.

Stochastic physics perturbations

Lagged-day initialization

Ensemble size for the forecast

10

10

20

10

How is the forecast ensemble configured?

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Length of forecasts

10 years

10 years

5 years

10 years

How are the forecast anomalies constructed?

Lead-time dependent climatology with trend correction for near-surface temperatures

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

URL where forecast(maps) are displayed

Not available

Not available

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ research/ climate/ seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc/index 

https://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast/forecasts-archive/             

Point of Contact

reinel.sospedra-alfonso@canada.ca

louis-philippe.caron@bsc.es

nick.dunstone@metoffice.gov.uk

klaus.pankatz@dwd.de





System Configuration Information for Contributing Centers

 

DMI/SMHI

MIROC

CSIRO

When was the current decadal prediction system implemented?

2019

2019

January 2020

­Is it a coupled forecast system?

Yes

Yes

Yes

Atmospheric model and resolution

IFS: T255 (~80km), 91 levels (model top: 0.01 hPa)

MIROC6-AGCM: T85 (~1.4°), 81 levels

AM2: 2◦ latitude x 2.5◦ longitude, 24 levels

Ocean model and resolution (if applicable)

NEMO3.6: ORCA 1°-grid, 75 levels

COCO: 1° with enhanced resolution in the tropics, 62 levels

MOM5: ACCESS grid (1° resolution, enhanced resolution in the tropics and Southern Ocean, 50 levels)

Sea-ice model (if applicable)

LIM3

Multi-category EVP sea-ice model as a submodule of COCO

Sea Ice Simulator (SIS)

Source of atmospheric initial conditions

Full fields of ERA40/ERA-Interim/ERA5

6 hourly atmospheric winds, temperature and specific humidity from JRA55

Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations

Source of ocean and ice initial conditions

Addition of interpolated ORAS5-anomalies (ORAS5 backward extension used before 1979) onto model climatology

Data assimilation based on simplified IAU for monthly ocean temperature, salinity, and sea-ice concentration

Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations

Forecast Start Month

January

January

November

Hindcast period

1960-2018

1960-2018

1960-2018

Ensemble size for the hindcasts

15

10

10

How is the hindcast ensemble configured?

1 unperturbed and 2 perturbed atmospheric temperature initial states

Separate coupled assimilation for each ensemble member

Initial conditions are picked from members of a climate re-analysis.

Ensemble size for the forecast

15

10

10

How is the forecast ensemble configured?

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Length of forecasts

10 years + 2 months

10 years

10 years

How are the forecast anomalies constructed?

Data provided as full fields, bias- and drift- correction performed by WMO LC-GPC

 

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

URL where forecast(maps) are displayed

Not available

Not available

Not available

Point of Contact

shuting@dmi.dktim.kruschke@smhi.se

kimoto@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

richard.matear@csiro.au



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