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WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction



System Configuration Information for Global Producing Centers

 

BSC

CCCMA

CSIRO

DWD

MOHC

When was the current decadal prediction system implemented?

June 2011

2012

January 2020

2020

Oct 2015

Is it a coupled forecast system?

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Atmospheric model and resolution

IFS: T159 (~125 km), 62 levels

CanCM4: T63 (~300km), 35 levels

AM2: 2ᵒ latitude x 2.5ᵒ longitude, 24 levels

ECHAM6: T127(~200km), 47 levels

HadGEM3-GC2: N216 (~60km), 85 levels

Ocean model and resolution (if applicable)

NEMO: ORCA 1ᵒ grid, 42 levels

1.4° longitude ´ 0.94° latitude, 40 levels

MOM5: ACCESS grid (1ᵒ resolution, enhanced resolution in the tropics and Southern Ocean, 50 levels)

MPIOM: ~1.5ᵒ average, 40 levels

NEMO: ORCA 0.25ᵒ grid, 75 levels

Sea-ice model (if applicable)

LIM2

Cavitating fluid rheology and an energy balance model

Sea Ice Simulator (SIS)

Within MPIOM

CICE

Source of atmospheric initial conditions

ECMWF (FULLPOS software)

6 hourly atmospheric wind, temperature and specific humidity

Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations

Full-field nudged atmosphere with Ensemble Kalman filtering using ERA40/ERA5

6 hourly atmospheric winds and temperature from ERA40/ERA-Interim

Source of ocean and ice initial conditions

Interpolation of ORAS4 data

Interpolated monthly/daily sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration. Sea ice thickness nudged to values from a statistical model. Offline variational assimilation of 3D ocean temperature

Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations

Assimiliated ocean state with Ensemble Kalman Filtering using ocean temperature and salinity from EN4 observations and daily sea-ice concentration from NSIDC

Monthly potential temperature and salinity from MOSORA and monthly sea-ice concentration from HadISST

Forecast Start Month

November

January

November

November

November

Hindcast period

1960-2017

1960-2010

1960-2018

1960-2020

1960-2015

Ensemble size for the hindcasts

10

10

10

10

10

How is the hindcast ensemble configured?

Perturbations of atmosphere and ocean initial conditions.

Separate coupled assimilation for each ensemble member.

Initial conditions are picked from members of a climate re-analysis.

Lagged-day initialization

Stochastic physics perturbations

Ensemble size for the forecast

10

10

10

16

20

How is the forecast ensemble configured?

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Length of forecasts

10 years

10 years

10 years

10 years

5 years

How are the forecast anomalies constructed?

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology with trend correction for near-surface temperatures

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

URL where forecast(maps) are displayed

Not available

Not available

Not available

https://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast/forecasts-archive/

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc/index 

Point of Contact

louis-philippe.caron@bsc.es

reinel.sospedra-alfonso@canada.ca

richard.matear@csiro.au

klaus.pankatz@dwd.de

nick.dunstone@metoffice.gov.uk





System Configuration Information for Contributing Centers

 

CMCC

DMI/SMHI

MIROC

When was the current decadal prediction system implemented?

2020

2019

2019

Is it a coupled forecast system?

Yes

Yes

Yes

Atmospheric model and resolution

CAM v5: 0.9ᵒ latitude x 1.25ᵒ longitude, 30 hybrid levels up to 2 hPa

IFS: T255 (~80km), 91 levels (model top: 0.01 hPa)

MIROC6-AGCM: T85 (~1.4ᵒ), 81 levels

Ocean model and resolution (if applicable)

NEMO v3.6: ORCA 1ᵒ grid, 50 levels

NEMO3.6: ORCA 1ᵒ-grid, 75 levels

COCO: 1ᵒ with enhanced resolution in the tropics, 62 levels

Sea-ice model (if applicable)

CICE

LIM3

Multi-category EVP sea-ice model as a submodule of COCO

Source of atmospheric initial conditions

Full fields of ERA40 (1960-1978), ERA-Interim (1979-2018), ERA5 (2019-2020)

Full fields of ERA40/ERA-Interim/ERA5

6 hourly atmospheric winds, temperature and specific humidity from JRA55

Source of ocean and ice initial conditions

3 members of global ocean reanalysis (CHOR for 1960-2010, CGLORS for 2011-2020)

Addition of interpolated ORAS5-anomalies (ORAS5 backward extension used before 1979) onto model climatology

Data assimilation based on simplified IAU for monthly ocean temperature, salinity, and sea-ice concentration

Forecast Start Month

November

January

January

Hindcast period

1960-2020

1960-2018

1960-2018

Ensemble size for the hindcasts

10

15

10

How is the hindcast ensemble configured?

Combinations of atmosphere, ocean and land initial conditions

1 unperturbed and 2 perturbed atmospheric temperature initial states

Separate coupled assimilation for each ensemble member

Ensemble size for the forecast

10

15

10

How is the forecast ensemble configured?

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Length of forecasts

10 years

10 years + 2 months

10 years

How are the forecast anomalies constructed?

Lead-time dependent climatology

Data provided as full fields, bias- and drift- correction performed by WMO LC-GPC

Lead-time dependent climatology

URL where forecast(maps) are displayed

Not available

Not available

Not available

Point of Contact

panos.athanasiadis@cmcc.it

shuting@dmi.dktim.kruschke@smhi.se

kimoto@aori.u-tokyo.ac.jp



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