WMO logo

WMO Lead Centre for
Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction



System Configuration for Global Producing Centers

 

CSIRO

CCCMA

BSC

MOHC

DWD

When was the current decadal prediction system implemented?

January 2020

2012

June 2011

Oct 2015

2011

Is it a coupled forecast system?

Yes

Yes

 

Yes

Yes

Yes

Atmospheric model and resolution

AM2: 2◦ latitude x 2.5◦ longitude, 24 levels

CanCM4: T63 (~300km), 35 levels

IFS: T159 (~125 km), 62 levels

HadGEM3-GC2: N216 (~60km), 85 levels

ECHAM6: T127(~100km), 95 levels

Ocean model and resolution (if applicable)

MOM5: ACCESS grid (1° resolution, enhanced resolution in the tropics and Southern Ocean, 50 levels)

1.4° longitude ´ 0.94° latitude, 40 levels

NEMO: ORCA 1ᵒ grid, 42 levels

 

NEMO: ORCA 0.25ᵒ grid, 75 levels

MPIOM: 0.4ᵒ average, 40 levels

 

Sea-ice model (if applicable)

Sea Ice Simulator (SIS)

Cavitating fluid rheology and an energy balance model

LIM2

CICE

Within MPIOM

Source of atmospheric initial conditions

Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations

6 hourly atmospheric wind, temperature and specific humidity

ECMWF (FULLPOS software)

6 hourly atmospheric winds and temperature from ERA40/ERA-Interim

Nudging to 6 hourly temperature, vorticity, divergence, surface pressure from ERA40/ERA-interim

Source of ocean and ice initial conditions

Coupled ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice observations

Interpolated monthly/daily sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration. Sea ice thickness nudged to a model climatology. Offline variational assimilation of 3D ocean temperature

Interpolation of ORAS4 data

Monthly potential temperature and salinity from MOSORA and monthly sea-ice concentration from HadISST

Monthly ocean temperature and salinity from ECMWF ORA-S4 and daily sea-ice concentration from NSIDC

Hindcast period

1960-2018

1960 – 2010

1960-2017

1960-2015

1960 - 2017

Ensemble size for the hindcasts

10

10

10

10

10

How is the hindcast ensemble configured?

Initial conditions are picked from members of a climate re-analysis.

Separate coupled assimilation for each ensemble member.

Perturbations of atmosphere and ocean initial conditions.

Stochastic physics perturbations

Lagged-day initialization

Ensemble size for the forecast

10

10

10

20

10

How is the forecast ensemble configured?

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Same as hindcasts

Length of forecasts

10 years

10 years

10 years

5 years

10 years

How are the forecast anomalies constructed?

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology with trend correction for near-surface temperatures

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

Lead-time dependent climatology

URL where forecast(maps) are displayed

Not available

Not available

Not available

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc/index 

https://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast/forecasts-archive/

 

Point of Contact

richard.matear@csiro.au

bill.merryfield@canada.ca

louis-philippe.caron@bsc.es

nick.dunstone @metoffice.gov.uk

klaus.pankatz@dwd.de



Global Producing Centres

Logos of Global Producing Centres

Contributing Centres

Logos of Contributing Centres